Amman, June 21, 2026
The Phenix Center forEconomic and Informatics Studies has released a new report entitled “Assessingthe Impacts of the U.S.–Israeli War Against Iran on Food Security.” The reportexamines the consequences of the war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, anddisruptions in energy, fertilizer, and maritime transport markets on global andregional food systems, with a particular focus on the Arab region as one of theworld's most food-import-dependent regions.
The report notes thatdespite the signing of a memorandum of understanding intended to pave the wayfor de-escalation, and despite the gradual reopening of the Strait ofHormuz—which carries positive initial indications for the restoration ofshipping and trade flows—the risks associated with the conflict have not yetsubsided. The report highlights that the lingering effects of the previousclosure of the Strait, the uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the UnitedStates and Iran, the persistence of potential flashpoints across the region,and Israeli efforts to obstruct negotiations or maintain regional tensionscontinue to pose serious threats to food security, energy markets, andinternational trade.
According to thereport, the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a necessary steptoward easing pressure on oil, gas, shipping, and fertilizer markets, whilerestoring confidence in global supply chains. However, the report stresses thatreopening the Strait alone will not eliminate existing risks unless accompaniedby political and security guarantees that ensure the stability of maritimenavigation, prevent renewed disruptions, and reduce the likelihood of militaryescalation or attacks on critical routes and infrastructure.
The report explainsthat the conflict threatens food security not only through the possibility ofreduced agricultural production, but more importantly through disruptions tothe interconnected systems upon which the modern global food system depends.Food security today is closely linked to energy prices, fertilizeravailability, shipping stability, insurance costs, exchange rates, andgovernments’ ability to finance subsidies, maintain strategic reserves, andsupport social protection programs. Consequently, any disruption in one ofthese components can rapidly spread across the entire food supply chain—fromproduction and transportation to storage, processing, distribution, andconsumption.
The report identifiesthe Strait of Hormuz as a central element of the crisis, given its role as oneof the world's most strategic maritime corridors. Vast quantities of oil passthrough the Strait daily, along with a significant share of global trade infertilizers and agricultural inputs, including urea, ammonia, sulfur, andphosphate products. Therefore, any closure or disruption of navigation throughthe Strait affects not only energy markets but also agricultural productioncosts and the availability of essential farming inputs worldwide.
The report outlinesfive principal channels through which the war may affect food security. Thefirst is rising energy prices, which increase the cost of operatingagricultural machinery, irrigation systems, transportation, refrigeration, foodprocessing, and storage.
The second concernsdisruptions in fertilizer production and trade, particularly nitrogen-basedfertilizers that rely heavily on natural gas as both a feedstock and energysource. The third channel is the disruption of maritime transportation, leadingto higher shipping and insurance costs and delays in the delivery of foodproducts and agricultural inputs.
The fourth relates toinflationary pressures and exchange-rate volatility, especially in countriesthat import food using U.S. dollars. The fifth involves mounting fiscalpressures on governments seeking to maintain food subsidies, expand socialprotection programs, and strengthen strategic reserves amid rising importcosts.
The report emphasizesthat the Arab region is among the most exposed regions to these shocks due toits structural dependence on imports of food, cereals, vegetable oils, animalfeed, fertilizers, and agricultural inputs.
According to thereport, this vulnerability stems from a combination of factors, including waterscarcity, limited arable land, population pressures, climate change, lowagricultural productivity, and heavy reliance on international markets.
The report estimatesthat approximately 65 percent of cereal consumption in Arab countries is metthrough imports, making the region particularly sensitive to increases inenergy, shipping, fertilizer, and food prices.
The report furthernotes that risk levels vary across the Arab world. Gulf countries possessfinancial resources, strategic reserves, and institutional capacities thatenable them to absorb short-term shocks. Nevertheless, they remain highlydependent on imported food, maritime trade routes, and energy-intensivedesalination systems.
In the Levant,countries such as Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine face compounded risksarising from import dependence, water scarcity, fiscal constraints, anddeclining purchasing power. Meanwhile, North African countries—including Egypt,Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya—are affected to varying degrees by risingcosts of cereals, energy, fertilizers, and transportation.
The report warns thatfragile and conflict-affected countries such as Yemen, Sudan, Palestine,Lebanon, and Syria face the greatest risks. In these contexts, the war does notcreate food crises from scratch but rather exacerbates existing vulnerabilitiescaused by displacement, weak institutions, deteriorating public services,declining purchasing power, and shrinking humanitarian funding. Higher fuel andtransportation costs also increase the cost of delivering food assistance tothe most vulnerable populations.
The report concludesthat the duration of the crisis will be the decisive factor in determining thescale of its impact. Short-term disruptions may raise prices and increaseenergy, shipping, and fertilizer costs, but could remain manageable. However,if the crisis persists for several months or extends across multipleagricultural seasons, it may evolve into a deeper food shock characterized byreduced fertilizer use, declining crop productivity, and sustained increases infood prices.
The Phenix Center callsfor a multi-level response that includes diversifying sources of food andfertilizer imports, expanding strategic reserves, strengthening scalable socialprotection systems during crises, enhancing Arab regional cooperation inmanaging reserves and supply chains, investing in climate-smart agriculture andwater-efficient irrigation technologies, reducing food loss and waste,supporting small-scale farmers, and strengthening early-warning systems andmarket monitoring mechanisms.
The report alsostresses that maintaining stable navigation through the Strait of Hormuz andensuring its continued gradual reopening are essential conditions for easingcurrent pressures on food security, energy markets, and international trade.